| dc.description.abstract |
When the dynamics of a system is too complex to be analytically modelled, it has been found useful to assume that expected values of explanatory variables generate expected values of the response variable, and hence, deviations from the expected value of the response variable can be modelled by a Linear Perturbation Model (LPM) of the explanatory variables. This method is used in this study to develop a technique to update crop forecasts where climate is a major factor in crop production. The study is important because modern cultivars, which are the result of genetic gains, are sensitive to climatic variability, and recent studies with general circulation models suggest that one of the consequences of an increase in greenhouse gases may be greater variability in the climate of a region. The usefulness of the LPM technique in the study of agriculture |
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